Knowing wildfire risk: Scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria,Australia     

《Geoforum》2016

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.  相似文献   

Information structuring and risk-based inspection for the marine oil pipelines     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

The proposed work is incorporated into the research theme concerning the maintenance and inspection of sensitive facilities in production systems. It is essential to promote the methodological deployment of inspection techniques to ensure the good functioning of services provided by complex production systems as well as their different components. We use a risk-based inspection methodology offering an organized analysis with knowledge sharing for collaborative possibilities in a multidisciplinary context and it consists of the following steps: data acquisition and information collection, failure analysis (probability and consequences), risk assessment, inspection plan, mitigation and revaluation. The application of this methodology can improve the maintenance management strategies of industrial companies. The inspection department is able to forecast its potential failure, root causes and impacts on the safe operation of the considered production system, based on a reliable inventory of existing situations and review options for continuous improvement in maintenance management. In particular, we addressed the application of a Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) methodology in the French petroleum company with operations on the west coast of central and southern Africa. The incorporation of expert knowledge into risk assessment is helping to find the best preventive plan for pipeline inspection in the case study.  相似文献   

Intertidal macroalgae and macroinvertebrates: Seasonal and spatial abundance patterns along an estuarine gradient     

Morgan N. Hardwick-Witman  Arthur C. Mathieson 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1983,16(2):113-129

Quantitative sampling of the dominant intertidal epibiota was conducted seasonally along an estuarine gradient within the Great Bay Estuary System, New Hampshire, U.S.A. The abundance and zonation of the dominant macroorganisms varied with distance into the estuary. Replacement of marine by estuarine species occurred, and overall abundance and species richness decreased along the estuarine gradient. Zonation patterns within the inner estuary were primarily allied with substrata. Maximum abundance of invertebrates occurred in the mid-intertidal zone where a dense fucoid canopy provided habitat heterogeneity. Densities of epibiotic organisms decreased toward low water, especially in the inner estuary where hard substratum was limiting. Settlement blocks, introduced into the low intertidal zone, were dominated by barnacles and fucoid algae; after 16 months, the species composition on the settlement blocks resembled the adjacent community. Semibalanus balanoides settled in the spring, while Fucus vesiculosus var. spiralis exhibited low but constant settlement. Despite the physical rigors of the estuarine environment, only Semibalanus balanoides, Ilyanassa obsoleta and Spartina alterniflora showed significant seasonal changes in density. Thus, there are predictable and persistent epibiotic species assemblages within the intertidal zone of the Great Bay Estuary System.  相似文献   

新疆精河莱历斯高尔铜钼矿床原生地球化学异常     

孙继东  王崇礼  于风池 《地球科学与环境学报》1992,(4)

矿区处于博罗霍洛山主脊,属斑岩型铜钼矿床。斑岩体本身为矿体,钼矿在岩体内,铜矿在外接触带。通过矿区北部勘查地球化学工作表明,Mo、Cu、Pb、Ag、As原生地球化学异常规模大、连续性好,形态规则,梯度大。As、Sb、Ag具前缘特征。除Mo、Cu外,Pb、Ag具主成矿元素特征。原生异常纵向分带具轴向分带特征,分带序列有一定的典型意义。从地质、地球化学异常特征、小岩体地球化学特征以及金属预测资源初步计算认为该矿床很有远景。  相似文献   

Marine debris review for Latin America and the wider Caribbean region: from the 1970s until now, and where do we go from here?   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ivar do Sul JA  Costa MF 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(8):1087-1104

The available literature on marine debris from Latin America and the Wider Caribbean Region was collected and linked, reviewing their methodologies and principal results (quantities, composition and spatial-temporal patterns). The study region comprises 52 coastal countries of which only 14 had registers of works on marine debris. A total of 70 works were available and 69 had their full contents accessed. Brazil dominated the available literature with 70% of the documents. Beaches were the most studied environment, and plastics the prevalent form of contamination in the whole region. The exposure of marine biota (species, type of contact, consequences) was highlighted. The studied region, although still little exploited by this sort of research, shows the same contamination patterns observed world-wide. We also contacted 40 researchers in the area, collecting scientific contributions, opinions and suggestions for improvement of this research field. Further advances and new (urgently needed) lines of research are also discussed.  相似文献   

Variability in invasion risk for ballast water exchange on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada     

Brickman D  Smith PC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(7):863-874

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for dispersion of ballast water organisms in shelf seas is applied to the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. The ballast water exchange process is simulated as the dispersion of tracer released into the surface layer of an ocean circulation model of the region. Circulation model variability is driven by wind stress from a cyclical year of forcing representing climatological storminess. Dispersion metrics related to invasion risk are developed and incorporated into a risk equation that computes the relative overall risk of invasion for ballast water exchange segments along vessel tracks crossing the shelf. Three hundred and sixty dispersion simulations are done for each segment of each of six tracks. Because the flow fields represent climatological variability in shelf circulation, the application of the risk assessment model captures the expected variability in invasion risk. Model results indicate that more than an order of magnitude variation in risk can exist along a given vessel track, and that tracks with offshelf segments provide a lower risk option compared to onshelf tracks. The model provides quantitative guidance to regulators regarding what is an acceptable trip diversion and can aid in numerous other management decisions.  相似文献   

Compositional Zoning of the Bishop Tuff   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

Hildreth  Wes; Wilson  Colin J. N. 《Journal of Petrology》2007,48(5):951-999

Compositional data for >400 pumice clasts, organized accordingto eruptive sequence, crystal content, and texture, providenew perspectives on eruption and pre-eruptive evolution of the>600 km³ of zoned rhyolitic magma ejected as the Bishop Tuffduring formation of Long Valley caldera. Proportions and compositionsof different pumice types are given for each ignimbrite packageand for the intercalated plinian pumice-fall layers that eruptedsynchronously. Although withdrawal of the zoned magma was lesssystematic than previously realized, the overall sequence displaystrends toward greater proportions of less evolved pumice, morecrystals (0·5–24 wt %), and higher FeTi-oxide temperatures(714–818°C). No significant hiatus took place duringthe 6 day eruption of the Bishop Tuff, nearly all of which issuedfrom an integrated, zoned, unitary reservoir. Shortly beforeeruption, however, the zoned melt-dominant portion of the chamberwas invaded by batches of disparate lower-silica rhyolite magma,poorer in crystals than most of the resident magma but slightlyhotter and richer in Ba, Sr, and Ti. Interaction with residentmagma at the deepest levels tapped promoted growth of Ti-richrims on quartz, Ba-rich rims on sanidine, and entrapment ofnear-rim melt inclusions relatively enriched in Ba and CO₂.Varied amounts of mingling, even in higher parts of the chamber,led to the dark gray and swirly crystal-poor pumices sparselypresent in all ash-flow packages. As shown by FeTi-oxide geothermometry,the zoned rhyolitic chamber was hottest where crystal-richest,rendering any model of solidification fronts at the walls orroof unlikely. The main compositional gradient (75–195ppm Rb; 0·8–2·2 ppm Ta; 71–154 ppmZr; 0·40–1·73% FeO*) existed in the melt,prior to crystallization of the phenocryst suite observed, whichincluded zircon as much as 100 kyr older than the eruption.The compositions of crystals, though themselves largely unzoned,generally reflect magma temperature and the bulk compositionalgradient, implying both that few crystals settled or were transportedfar and that the observed crystals contributed little to establishingthat gradient. Upward increases in aqueous gas and dissolvedwater, combined with the adiabatic gradient (for the 5 km depthrange tapped) and the roofward decline in liquidus temperatureof the zoned melt, prevented significant crystallization againstthe roof, consistent with dominance of crystal-poor magma earlyin the eruption and lack of any roof-rind fragments among theBishop ejecta, before or after onset of caldera collapse. Amodel of secular incremental zoning is advanced wherein numerousbatches of crystal-poor melt were released from a mush zone(many kilometers thick) that floored the accumulating rhyoliticmelt-rich body. Each batch rose to its own appropriate levelin the melt-buoyancy gradient, which was self-sustaining againstwholesale convective re-homogenization, while the thick mushzone below buffered it against disruption by the deeper (non-rhyolitic)recharge that augmented the mush zone and thermally sustainedthe whole magma chamber. Crystal–melt fractionation wasthe dominant zoning process, but it took place not principallyin the shallow melt-rich body but mostly in the pluton-scalemush zone before and during batchwise melt extraction. KEY WORDS: Bishop Tuff; ignimbrite; magma zonation; mush model; rhyolite  相似文献   

Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Mabel-Cristina Marulanda  Omar D. Cardona  Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(3):501-516

The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world.  相似文献   

Bather density as a predominant factor for health effects related to recreational bathing: results from the Greek bathers cohort study     

Papastergiou P  Mouchtouri VA  Rachiotis G  Pinaka O  Katsiaflaka A  Hadjichristodoulou C 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(3):590-595

Our aim was to examine the health effects on bathers from exposure to recreational seawater on three beaches with different microbiology quality and bather density through a cohort study. An initial questionnaire and a 10 day follow up were used. Univariate and backward logistic regression analyses were used to asses the risk of developing symptoms or diseases among the bathers. In total, 3805 bathers were included in the study and 149 samples were collected from the three beaches. Despite all the beaches being characterized of high quality the levels of bacterial indicators differed among them. Health effects among bathers were not associated with bacterial indicators. A statistically significant increased risk for symptoms related to respiratory illness, gastroenteritis, medical consultation and use of medication was observed among bathers at the higher bather density beaches. Beach bather numbers should always be taken into account when considering a risk assessment approach.  相似文献   

Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ana Maria Cruz  Norio Okada 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(2):199-220

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

Norio OkadaEmail:

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